Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-27 2.300338 2.445936 2.600168 2.776424 2.973158 3.187036 3.438555
2025-08-03 2.078776 2.276380 2.496354 2.761851 3.077022 3.443710 3.909519
2025-08-10 1.934558 2.159471 2.418220 2.742443 3.144609 3.636768 4.300968
2025-08-17 1.816019 2.056208 2.339442 2.704737 3.173893 3.772300 4.622704
2025-08-24 1.720044 1.970072 2.270911 2.668341 3.194120 3.889505 4.925171
2025-08-31 1.655032 1.915804 2.235499 2.667534 3.255670 4.061948 5.321867
2025-09-07 1.605247 1.876339 2.214493 2.681329 3.334505 4.262119 5.784325
2025-09-14 1.538875 1.811667 2.156329 2.639828 3.330620 4.339044 6.060340
2025-09-21 1.477360 1.749948 2.098178 2.593543 3.314497 4.393363 6.303207
2025-09-28 1.421396 1.692776 2.042868 2.547129 3.293402 4.435902 6.529053
2025-10-05 1.403725 1.684771 2.052492 2.591882 3.410195 4.706950 7.213534
2025-10-12 1.385944 1.675471 2.059321 2.632161 3.522213 4.981415 7.961104
2025-10-19 1.370026 1.668634 2.070001 2.679967 3.652283 5.307051 8.905328
2025-10-26 1.335135 1.634520 2.040778 2.666083 3.681158 5.456272 9.503991
2025-11-02 1.301355 1.600560 2.010079 2.647765 3.700481 5.589049 10.098812
2025-11-09 1.264578 1.561107 1.969781 2.612161 3.687318 5.657568 10.552150
2025-11-16 1.230407 1.524162 1.931627 2.577777 3.673407 5.722526 11.015432
2025-11-23 1.207950 1.502908 1.915418 2.577015 3.717950 5.909985 11.880925
2025-11-30 1.190644 1.488298 1.908248 2.590048 3.787698 6.158600 13.026325
2025-12-07 1.160016 1.453739 1.870158 2.550829 3.758934 6.191735 13.499306
2025-12-14 1.129655 1.418779 1.830370 2.507061 3.718845 6.195560 13.879474
2025-12-21 1.100642 1.385059 1.791461 2.463143 3.675768 6.188347 14.224470
2025-12-28 1.095361 1.385471 1.804056 2.505490 3.799401 6.581236 16.272703